"[…], Liberia and Sierra Leone will have approximately 550,000 Ebola cases (1.4 million when corrected for underreporting)"
Meltzer, 2014
What really happened
"[…], Liberia and Sierra Leone will have approximately 550,000 Ebola cases (1.4 million when corrected for underreporting)"
Meltzer, 2014
"without additional interventions or changes in community behavior (e.g., notable reductions in unsafe burial practices), the model also estimates that Liberia and Sierra Leone will have approximately 550,000 Ebola cases (1.4 million…)"
Meltzer, 2014
"A CDC model […] was key to increasing the speed and scale of the US and global response.
Frieden, 2015
Key findings:
Samuel V. Scarpino @svscarpino
Meaningful forecasts are probabilistic.
Evaluating probabilistic forecasts requires
multiple observations.
Improve forecasts by
all available data streams
(individual/behavioural/spatial/genetic)?
Louis du Plessis, University of Oxford (unpublished)
Anton Camacho, Adam Kucharski, John Edmunds, Rachel Lowe,
Roz Eggo (LSHTM), Louis du Plessis (Oxford),
Tilmann Gneiting (Heidelberg), James Hensman (prowler.io),
Lawrence Murray (Uppsala)
Assessing the performance of real-time epidemic forecasts
S.F., A. Camacho, A. J. Kucharski, R. Lowe, R. M. Eggo, W. J. Edmunds
bioRxiv 177451; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/177451